Spring Statement 26: UK growth to slow to 1.1% in 2026 before edging up

According to OBR forecast

Linus Uhlig
clock • 3 min read

UK growth is set to slow by 0.3 percentage points in 2026, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) economic forecast, before increasing from 2027.

This marked a drop from the 1.4% expected by the UK's fiscal watchdog in December to 1.1% today (3 March) and provides "further evidence of a loosening labour market, and subdued business survey", according to the OBR.  However, while delivering her Spring Statement at the dispatch box, Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasised that the UK's overall growth profile has been upgraded to an average of 1.6% per year from 2027, with the same figure for 2028 and 1.5% in 2029 and 2030.  The OBR noted that this current weakness is "cyclical" because there remains more spare capacity in the economy ...

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