Spiralling energy costs and supply chain disruption are expected to push the UK to the brink of a technical recession in the middle of this year, according to Item Club’s Spring 2026 forecast.
The forecasting group predicted no growth in Q2 or Q3 2026, while GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.7% from 1.4% in 2025, before picking up to a still below par 0.9% in 2027. Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the Item Club, said: "Consumers' spending power will be squeezed, while more expensive financing arrangements and a less certain global economic backdrop will pour cold water on companies' investment plans." Conflict in the Middle East is also expected to cause the biggest jolt to the jobs market since the pandemic. Item Club forecasted the unemployment rate will top out...
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