Ultra-low interest rates and QE 'broke 4% drawdown rule'

4% withdrawal rule of thumb

clock • 2 min read

The 4% rule of thumb often used to define a sustainable approach for drawdown in retirement is no longer fit for purpose due to prevailing and sustained market conditions, according to Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP).

The "nastiest, hardest problem in finance" has become even tougher in a world of zero - or negative - real interest rates and quantitative easing (QE), the consultancy said, while the two-decade-old 4% rule "comes from a different world" and needs rethinking. The withdrawal rate is causing many to run out of money while cautionary approaches to asset allocation, weighted towards bonds, "could be working against them" and lead to "years of lost income". Overall, the 4% rule is now three times more likely to lead to failure than a decade ago, due to both market conditions and increased ...

To continue reading this article...

Join Professional Adviser for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, industry insights and market intelligence
  • Stay ahead of the curve with spotlights on emerging trends and technologies
  • Receive breaking news stories straight to your inbox in the daily newsletters
  • Make smart business decisions with the latest developments in regulation, investing retirement and protection
  • Members-only access to the editor’s weekly Friday commentary
  • Be the first to hear about our events and awards programmes

Join

 

Already a Professional Adviser member?

Login

More on Income

L&G forecasts annual annuity volumes to more than double to £20bn by 2034

L&G forecasts annual annuity volumes to more than double to £20bn by 2034

To launch blended annuity drawdown product next year

Jenna Brown
clock 23 October 2025 • 4 min read
Number of retirees 'shopping around' for annuities reaches record high

Number of retirees 'shopping around' for annuities reaches record high

Two-thirds of annuities were finalised after customers shopped around for best rates

Jasmine Urquhart
clock 16 October 2025 • 2 min read
The role of annuities: 'Placing the onus on savers to act autonomously is improvident'

The role of annuities: 'Placing the onus on savers to act autonomously is improvident'

'Savers have reacted positively to this so-called "flex-then-fix" approach'

Matthew Morris
clock 24 September 2025 • 3 min read