Ultra-low interest rates and QE 'broke 4% drawdown rule'

4% withdrawal rule of thumb

clock • 2 min read

The 4% rule of thumb often used to define a sustainable approach for drawdown in retirement is no longer fit for purpose due to prevailing and sustained market conditions, according to Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP).

The "nastiest, hardest problem in finance" has become even tougher in a world of zero - or negative - real interest rates and quantitative easing (QE), the consultancy said, while the two-decade-old 4% rule "comes from a different world" and needs rethinking. The withdrawal rate is causing many to run out of money while cautionary approaches to asset allocation, weighted towards bonds, "could be working against them" and lead to "years of lost income". Overall, the 4% rule is now three times more likely to lead to failure than a decade ago, due to both market conditions and increased ...

To continue reading this article...

Join Professional Adviser for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, industry insights and market intelligence
  • Stay ahead of the curve with spotlights on emerging trends and technologies
  • Receive breaking news stories straight to your inbox in the daily newsletters
  • Make smart business decisions with the latest developments in regulation, investing retirement and protection
  • Members-only access to the editor’s weekly Friday commentary
  • Be the first to hear about our events and awards programmes

Join

 

Already a Professional Adviser member?

Login

More on Income

Smoothing the dash to drawdown: Defending against sequencing risk and volatility drag

Smoothing the dash to drawdown: Defending against sequencing risk and volatility drag

'A new class of on-platform smoothed funds could be particularly useful'

James Tothill
clock 25 November 2025 • 4 min read
Doug Brodie: Using investment trusts to solve the drawdown problem

Doug Brodie: Using investment trusts to solve the drawdown problem

Part one in a series...

Doug Brodie
clock 14 November 2025 • 4 min read
'A hard act to beat': Annuity pricing and value for money

'A hard act to beat': Annuity pricing and value for money

‘People cannot have their cake and eat it (although they try)’

William Burrows
clock 04 November 2025 • 5 min read