Tristan Hanson, head of asset allocation at Ashburton, explores the correlation between expectations of returns and expected returns.
Investing is a counterintuitive exercise. Things that seem obvious are typically anything but, or at least waging money on their outcome is rarely profitable - the seemingly certain scenario is priced in and the risk of an alternative outcome under-priced. Future investment returns will generally be low when starting point valuations are high, yet it will be under circumstances that look and feel rosy that such commentators will argue high valuations are sustainable. Similarly, the greatest returns are generally made when the outlook seems most dreadful and the thought of putting one'...
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