George Osborne's emergency Budget has increased the chances of the British economy sinking into a second recession next year, a respected think tank says.
The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) says the likelihood of output falling next year has risen from one in seven to a fifth. It links the increase directly to the tough measures the Chancellor announced on 22 June. The chances of two successive quarters of negative growth in 2011, the technical definition of a recession, is now running at slightly more than a fifth, says NIESR. NIESR's report is likely to embarrass ministers anxious to show cuts in public spending will "crowd in" private sector investment and job creation. The think tank adds living st...
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