Dutch Bank ABN Amro has issued a note on UK house builders predicting a "hard landing" as sales volumes and sales prices drop by at least 8% through the next two years.
As the market falls, listed housebuilders could see 10% cut from their equity value through 2006, with the value of residential land falling by a fifth. The bank goes on to say its earnings per share forecast for 2005 is now 13% “below consensus”, and 19% below consensus for 2006. ”We don.t believe many other houses have, as yet, factored in any house price deflation into their numbers,” the note says. ”Our economists now predict that if the historical close relationship between mortgage approvals and UK housing investment does not break down, a decline in UK housing investment of ...
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