Brendan McCurdy: Why the idea of the 'January Barometer' is bunk

Investors watching major stock indices levitate early in 2017 might have been reminded of the old trader's adage: "As goes January, so goes the year." We think one adage deserves another - so here goes: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics." Recent history suggests early-year performance is little more than a coin-flip in terms of predictive power for returns the rest of the year. To be sure, the statistics behind the so-called ‘January barometer' can, at first glance, appear compelling - depending on timeframes and index choice, the historical success ratio can be north of 90%. ...