Pictet AM warns of recession within two years

Writing in its secular outlook, chief strategist at Pictet AM Luca Paolini warned that falling equity returns as a result of the global economy's expansionary phase approaching its end, tighter financial conditions, a peak in US jobs growth and larger output gaps "all point to a recession within the next two years". While developed market growth is set to stall, Paolini argued that emerging markets would offer "double-digit opportunities", with EM equities forecast to return 10.5% over five years and EM Asia equities expected to return 10.8% in the same time period, while China's 12.9% i...