Neptune's Geffen sees higher rates, FTSE struggles

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Energy prices have yet to properly feed into the UK and global economies even as punters may have jumped the gun on the interest rate cycle, warns Robin Geffen, CIO Neptune Investment Management.

Geffen, speaking as manager of the Neptune Income OEIC in addition to his role as managing director, says the UK base rate could go up thrice through the rest of this year and into 2005, perhaps peaking as high as 5.5%. Recent increases in the FTSE 100, which this week sustained above the 4,700 level, have partly been based on expectations the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will at most raise rates another 25 basis points between now and the year-end. Geffen says another 0.25% hike is highly likely by November, with another two increases partly on the basis of a housing m...

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