The end of the bull market in bonds?

The 30-year bull market in bonds has outlived so many of its obituarists that strategists everywhere should think very carefully before proclaiming its demise (again). In the UK, where there was most room for a rally after the inflationary 1970s, the 10-year gilt yield has fallen from almost 16% in 1981 to just over 2% today (dipping briefly below 2% in late 2011), delivering a total return of almost 11% per annum (almost 7% after inflation) along the way and outperforming stocks for most of the last 20 years. Ten-year US and German bond yields fell from 14% and 10% respectively to sl...