Phillip Wickenden: The Budget before the Budget

By the time John Healey reaches the despatch box on 28 October, part of his first Autumn Budget will already be written. Not in Whitehall, but in basis points. That sounds rather grander than it really is. Bond investors do not get a vote on the Budget. But they do get to price it and that price will help determine how much room Healey has before he makes a single promise. The OBR's March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook estimates that a sustained one percentage point rise in bank rate and gilt yields would increase borrowing by £15bn in 2030-31. That is not £15bn of vanished headroom...