Michael Fish never lived down his reassurances on the weather before the great 1987 storm hit. Similarly the actuarial profession has a reputation for consistently underestimating future improvements in mortality rates. And let's not start on how projections of pension and endowment payouts - often based on assumptions set by the regulator - compare with reality.
The DWP is discovering just how hazardous forecasting is. For several years now it has encouraged consumers to request a state pension forecast, and tried (with limited success) to persuade pension schemes and providers to include details of state pensions on a ‘combined pension forecast’ each year. Now, to its considerable embarrassment, the DWP has announced that it can’t give state pension forecasts for anyone retiring after April 2010. It can’t provide the data feeds for combined statements or process BR19 applications. It hopes to have the facilities back in place by autumn 2008. It’...
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