Land on the right side of the fence

Arguably one of the most dangerous phenomena in the investment world is consensus. When most people start believing a certain thing is true - internet stocks are exempt from the normal rules of valuation, say, or house prices can continue to rise forever - the music is almost certainly about to stop. For those who realise this is the case, timing one's exit (or entry, in the case of an over-pessimistic consensus) is the critical factor. At present, however, there is less and less agreement regarding the future direction of stockmarkets and the world economy. While many experts are announc...