'It is not the 70s': OBR defends optimistic growth rates

GDP contracts by 1.4% in 2023 but inflation drops sharply over the year

clock • 3 min read

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has defended its more optimistic growth forecasts versus those of the Bank of England, telling MPs they are in line with energy market expectations.

OBR chair Richard Hughes told the Treasury Committee the projections are linked to inflation forecasts, which rely heavily on a relatively speedy fall in the price of energy. He said: "Energy shocks of the 70s and 80s lasted much longer than markets are predicting this shock will last." Market expectations imply there is a "really substantial fall in energy prices", especially gas prices, starting early in 2023 and "accelerating really sharply" through 2024 and 2025, another member of the OBR David Miles, told the committee. OBR confirms UK recession and weakest public finances 'fo...

To continue reading this article...

Join Professional Adviser for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, industry insights and market intelligence
  • Stay ahead of the curve with spotlights on emerging trends and technologies
  • Receive breaking news stories straight to your inbox in the daily newsletters
  • Make smart business decisions with the latest developments in regulation, investing retirement and protection
  • Members-only access to the editor’s weekly Friday commentary
  • Be the first to hear about our events and awards programmes

Join

 

Already a Professional Adviser member?

Login

More on Economics / Markets

Bank of England holds interest rates at 4.25%

Bank of England holds interest rates at 4.25%

Next MPC meeting in August

Sorin Dojan
clock 19 June 2025 • 3 min read
UK inflation dips to 3.4% in May but upside pressures persist

UK inflation dips to 3.4% in May but upside pressures persist

Services CPI still high

Sorin Dojan
clock 18 June 2025 • 2 min read
UK ups defence spending to 2.6% of GDP by 2027 as billions pledged

UK ups defence spending to 2.6% of GDP by 2027 as billions pledged

Chancellor delivered Spending Review

Sorin Dojan
clock 11 June 2025 • 4 min read