Morgan Stanley warns of 35% chance of eurozone collapse

clock

Investment bank Morgan Stanley has warned the ramifications of Greece exiting the euro are more serious than markets are anticipating, with a full-scale eurozone collapse now more likely.

In a note sent out to clients on Friday the firm raised its in-house forecast of a eurozone collapse by 10%, now giving it a 35% chance of happening. In the note, from Morgan Stanley's European research team, it said: "While a eurozone break-up is not our base case scenario, we raise our subjective probability to 35% from 25%." Morgan Stanley also reduced the timescale of a possible break up to 12-18 months, from its previous forecast of five years. In the note the investment bank maintains the most likely scenario from Greece exiting the single currency will be an eruption of cont...

To continue reading this article...

Join Professional Adviser for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, industry insights and market intelligence
  • Stay ahead of the curve with spotlights on emerging trends and technologies
  • Receive breaking news stories straight to your inbox in the daily newsletters
  • Make smart business decisions with the latest developments in regulation, investing retirement and protection
  • Members-only access to the editor’s weekly Friday commentary
  • Be the first to hear about our events and awards programmes

Join

 

Already a Professional Adviser member?

Login

More on Economics / Markets

Inflation falls faster than predicted ahead of BoE interest rate vote

Inflation falls faster than predicted ahead of BoE interest rate vote

3.2% in November

Michael Nelson
clock 17 December 2025 • 2 min read
FCA's Rathi addresses Autumn Budget market abuse concerns

FCA's Rathi addresses Autumn Budget market abuse concerns

Pens open letter to Treasury Committee

Isabel Baxter
clock 04 December 2025 • 2 min read
More tax, less shelter: A slow-burn Budget for savers and investors

More tax, less shelter: A slow-burn Budget for savers and investors

'The Budget documents make for sobering reading for those trying to build up their wealth'

Laith Khalaf
clock 04 December 2025 • 3 min read