J. P. Morgan Asset Management's US Equity Income Fund portfolio manager, Clare Hart is forecasting that the US will continue to experience sub-trend growth over the next one to two years, but that a recession will be avoided.
Whether or not the US avoids recession will, however, depend on the eurozone. “The strength of corporate balance sheets, and the fact that the cyclical areas of the economy remain depressed, are the reasons we believe a recession can be avoided. However, the risk of recession would greatly increase if the situation in Europe were to deteriorate further." Hart warns that despite increasingly attractive valuations, it is questionable whether markets will remain patient. “It is equally questionable whether all European constituents can actually agree on steps that will convince markets that...
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