Time for a reality check on the US

Amid the bullish euphoria that followed the US tax deal struck at the end of 2010, many forecasters began to pencil in some rather optimistic numbers for 2011 growth. With the consumer coming on strong in Q4, QE2 on tap until June and the tax deal done, the more excitable forecasters could envisage growth of 4%, if not more. This always seemed a rather extravagant expectation – a best, best case scenario that would require all assumptions to be met, and no unforeseen disappointments along the way. Indeed, the US economy has struggled so far this year, and forecasters have been busily rev...