What is the biggest threat to returns over the next 12 months?

Being too defensive Tom Becket, CIO of PSigma Investment Management   Given we are presently suffering a huge bull market in fear and everyone is very long of pessimism, I am going to take the opposite tack to most commentators. There is a risk that if the world is not in so bad a state as most are claiming then asset markets could perform very well over the next 12 months. Current valuations of "quality" equities and high yield bonds are attractive and in the absence of a material economic growth shock, both could make decent headway despite all of the gloom lingering over fina...