US positive as bonds nearpeak of 20-year bull trend

The US bonds bull trend goes back 20 years, and yields on five-year US treasuries (a more sensitive measure of Fed policy than the 10-year part of the yield curve) are very close to the top end of this bull channel. The question, therefore, is whether this level will hold and therefore indicate the Fed is close to finishing its current tightening in anticipation of an economic slowdown, or whether the yield will break above the upper end of the long-term trend, causing markets to fear a secular shift in inflation expectations and a more aggressive Fed policy. The last decade has been o...