the euro's ever-increasing strength may be a self-feeding bubble, but it won't burst before central banks move away from the currency
Bubbles are a recurring feature of capitalism. Predicting where the next one will develop and when it will peak rank as feats of genius for forecasters. After technology and residential property, is the exchange rate of the euro the next big bubble in the world economy? The last time I found this subject worth addressing was in November 2001 when the rate was at the other extreme. Then I argued that the bubble in the dollar was about to burst, as deterioration in the trade deficit is a delayed reaction to an over-valued currency. Over the next three years, the dollar fell a third against...
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