A day at the races: Delving into the balance between luck and skill

‘If a fund manager is successful…are they simply lucky with their calls?’

clock • 4 min read

Sometimes it is easy to distinguish luck from skill, David Jones write. Other times, maybe it’s not so straightforward.

Let's try a simple thought experiment designed to calibrate our appreciation of the problem. Let's say someone calls 20 coin tosses in a row correctly; is that luck or skill? I think we would all agree it was luck. However, if a champion darts player hits 180, we would probably say it was attributable to their skill and countless hours of practice. Winning at the roulette table? Luck. A professional player winning at poker? Skill, and some luck. Me hitting a hole-in-one in my first, and only, game of golf? Pure fluke—as evidenced by the rest of my scorecard. Tiger Woods getting a hole-in-on...

To continue reading this article...

Join Professional Adviser for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, industry insights and market intelligence
  • Stay ahead of the curve with spotlights on emerging trends and technologies
  • Receive breaking news stories straight to your inbox in the daily newsletters
  • Make smart business decisions with the latest developments in regulation, investing retirement and protection
  • Members-only access to the editor’s weekly Friday commentary
  • Be the first to hear about our events and awards programmes

Join

 

Already a Professional Adviser member?

Login

More on Investment

FCA takes civil action against Neil Woodford and W4.0 for 'operating without authorisation'

FCA takes civil action against Neil Woodford and W4.0 for 'operating without authorisation'

Accused of breaching FSMA

Michael Nelson
clock 08 June 2026 • 2 min read
M&G's PruFund coming to Scottish Widows Platform

M&G's PruFund coming to Scottish Widows Platform

First third-party platform launch

Jen Frost
clock 08 June 2026 • 2 min read
Investors move from cash to US equities as confidence improves

Investors move from cash to US equities as confidence improves

Investment Association figures show

clock 05 June 2026 • 3 min read