A day at the races: Delving into the balance between luck and skill

‘If a fund manager is successful…are they simply lucky with their calls?’

clock • 4 min read

Sometimes it is easy to distinguish luck from skill, David Jones write. Other times, maybe it’s not so straightforward.

Let's try a simple thought experiment designed to calibrate our appreciation of the problem. Let's say someone calls 20 coin tosses in a row correctly; is that luck or skill? I think we would all agree it was luck. However, if a champion darts player hits 180, we would probably say it was attributable to their skill and countless hours of practice. Winning at the roulette table? Luck. A professional player winning at poker? Skill, and some luck. Me hitting a hole-in-one in my first, and only, game of golf? Pure fluke—as evidenced by the rest of my scorecard. Tiger Woods getting a hole-in-on...

To continue reading this article...

Join Professional Adviser for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, industry insights and market intelligence
  • Stay ahead of the curve with spotlights on emerging trends and technologies
  • Receive breaking news stories straight to your inbox in the daily newsletters
  • Make smart business decisions with the latest developments in regulation, investing retirement and protection
  • Members-only access to the editor’s weekly Friday commentary
  • Be the first to hear about our events and awards programmes

Join

 

Already a Professional Adviser member?

Login

More on Investment

Advisers zoomed in on capital accumulation in Q4 2025

Advisers zoomed in on capital accumulation in Q4 2025

Titan Square Mile research finds

Jen Frost
clock 30 January 2026 • 3 min read
Measure for measure: How to track your tracker fund

Measure for measure: How to track your tracker fund

Tracking difference and tracking error

Terry McGivern
clock 28 January 2026 • 3 min read
SJP and AJ Bell pivot from US mega-caps in MPS as concentration woes continue

SJP and AJ Bell pivot from US mega-caps in MPS as concentration woes continue

Healthcare, energy and EM preferred

Linus Uhlig
clock 28 January 2026 • 2 min read