New Star predicts "knife-edge" decision for MPC in October

Ward noted the shift in the voting patterns of the Bank of England's MPC, from 1-7-1 in August (when one member voted for a hike, seven for no change and one for a cut) to 8-1 in September (with one member voting for a 50bps cut, the others voting for no change). He said: "Taking into account the September vote and available data on the other inputs, the model suggests a knife-edge October decision. Further weakness in consumer and business surveys released in late September and early October - plausible in light of recent financial events - would tip the balance in favour of a cut." ...