How to spot the credit markets' winners and losers

The complacency of today’s fixed income investors concerns us when we look at the pitfalls that abound in the current environment. There is a popular notion that simply seeking yield is a surefire strategy in a world backstopped by a great central bank put. That may have been true of the very recent past but there are reasons to believe the extraordinary set of circumstances cannot – and will not – continue. Investors who refuse to take a forward-looking view risk finding themselves on the wrong side of an inflection point. When that happens, there is the potential for market movements t...