On track for a recovery

Economic data in recent months confirms that the Japanese economy is turning the corner. During the final quarter of 2003, nominal GDP growth of 6.4% at an annualised rate was recorded compared with the third quarter, with industrial production rising at its strongest pace for five years. Although inventories unexpectedly declined, production should be positive in 2004. Despite expectations that economic growth in China and the US may slow slightly this year relative to 2003, growth in these countries is likely to remain at above-trend levels. This will continue to be positive for export...