Barclays Wealth chief economist Michael Dicks believes the UK faces a one in three chance of entering a "double-dip" recession next year.
Dicks cites three factors which could prove decisive - the impact of fiscal tightening, a weaker than expected export boost and higher inflation.
He believes the fiscal tightening outlined in the Budget could have a greater impact than generally expected.
"Look closely at the numbers, and you see that fiscal effort will jump by more than two percentage points next year, driven largely by the in-your-face hike in VAT, but also affected by other tax changes and by cuts in Government spending and benefit payments," Dicks says.
"The OBR believes that GDP growth will take the smallest of possible impacts early next year when the VAT hike bites - of 0.1 percentage points, from 0.6% to 0.5%. But we suspect that the hit will be rather bigger than this, and perhaps a lot bigger."
With all countries now looking to rein in deficits, Dicks says the UK will not find too many buoyant markets to export to. In addition, the economist believes higher inflation might require higher interest rates.
"The general presumption is that tight fiscal policy will be offset by loose monetary policy for some time.
However, inflation keeps surprising everyone on the high side - leaving one member of the Bank of England's MPC suggesting hiking rates," Dicks adds.
"If an unexpected supply shock upped inflation again, then the majority of the committee might well decide to follow his advice. And that could easily translate into a very poor growth outlook for the UK.
"All in all, we would say that it is more likely than not that the fiscal tightening takes the edge off of the recovery, rather than completely wrecking it. But, a double-dip scenario certainly cannot be completely ruled out."
Latest news and analysis
PA360 2019 revisited
Sector regulated by FPA
Future World funds
Achievements, charity work and other happy snippets