Sir Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics (LSE), today quashed talk of economic green shoots, declaring: "We have not turned a corner".
The former deputy governor of the Bank of England and the founder and first chairman of the FSA says although a mini recovery in bank stocks is likely, the future of the broader market "worries" him.
However, while Davies says the current recession is unlike any other he has seen, he adds it is reasonable to use previous crashes as a guide to how long it will last.
Speaking to IFAonline at Incisive Media's International Investment Forum today, Davies says he is unconvinced by mounting talk of an economic recovery.
"I fear I am sort of more on the bearish end," Davies says. "I don't quite understand what's gone on in the market.
"I do think a recovery in bank stocks is reasonable and that the probability of expropriation has fallen. We can expect those stocks to rise even though the profitability of them will be pretty mixed.
"But I worry about the broader market. As unemployment rises, consumer spending will continue to fall and the real economy is going to be flat for some time. I'm not convinced we have really turned a corner."
According to economists, not one of the official recessions of 1973-76, 1979-81 or 1990-92 has had the impact of the current credit crunch.
While GDP and unemployment have been worse than in previous crashes, the base rate, inflation and house prices are all lower this year than at any other time in the last 40 years.
Davies says it may be possible to judge how long this recession is likely to last by comparing it with previous crunches.
"I think you can look at the length of time of previous banking crises and how long depressed conditions have lasted," he says.
"The average time prices remain depressed is usually three to four years and, if the past is a guide, which it no longer completely is, you would expect maybe another couple of years of equity markets maybe trending up a bit but not really breaking out."
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