The UK economy is stabilising, but it will take until the beginning of next year before the return of "slow and gradual" growth, according to business leaders.
The CBI predicts "modest growth" will resume during the first three months of 2010, with the pace of growth gradually picking up over the course of the year.
It forecasts the economy will see a return to growth of 0.7% next year, after contracting by almost 4% over 2009.
"The harshest period of the recession looks to be behind us, the economy is stabilising and this should continue during the second half of this year," says CBI director-general, Richard Lambert.
"The return to growth is likely to be a slow and gradual one; difficult credit conditions are still affecting business behaviour. For positive growth to return, lenders need to feel more confident so that credit can start flowing again," he says.
Lambert warns people about getting carried away by tentative indicators as evidence of "green shoots".
"It will take some time before we can be sure these shoots have roots we can depend on for sustainable growth and, in the meantime, the government must do everything it can to help firms get access to credit," he says.
Ian McCafferty, CBI chief economic adviser, adds: "We still have some way to go before the UK economy is truly out of the woods and we see sustainable growth."IFAonline
Achievements, charity work and other happy snippets
Laughable excuses for persisting
Spent 56 years at Schroders
Warns on profits