The road less travelled

When rocket scientists blame the poor performance of computer models in practice on unprecedented events, there must be a lesson worth learning. Time and again I have felt mentally sub-normal when faced with their intellectual credentials, yet time and again they make the same excuse. When they say, "we are seeing things that were 25-standard deviation events, several days in a row", gullibility is surely stretched to breaking point, because that is equivalent to the odds of a meteorite striking the earth not just for the first time in 100,000 years but every day for the next week. This...