The global economic crisis has still not been solved, chairman and chief economist of Lombard Street Research warns.
Speaking at the Professional Pensions investment conference, Charles Dumas said a true recovery hinged on the behaviour of countries running large surpluses - such as China, Japan and Germany.
However, he said, while China had implemented a huge spending package over the past two years, Japan and Germany had done little to stimulate consumer spending.
Dumas warns: "We can only have a healthy economy if the savings glut countries increase their spending."
He said if this was not possible then deficit countries, such as the UK and the US, would have to transfer savings from the private sector to the public sector - through the purchase of government debt.
He said this was possible due to strong business sector surpluses and profitability in those countries.
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