BlackRock vice chairman Bob Doll has tipped US GDP will fall by at least 5% on an annual rate in the fourth quarter, following the near economic "freefall" experienced after September's Lehman Brothers collapse.
Doll says last month's US unemployment report has confirmed the seriousness of the current downturn, with more jobs lost in a single month since 1974.
However, Doll believes last week's late share rally has displayed encouraging signs the US markets are able overlook much of the negative data. He is sticking with the view stock markets are currently in a "bottoming process", following a significant low on 10 October.
"Stocks sank below their October 10 lows in late November, but importantly, volatility measures were lower then, which adds support to our view that prices are finding a floor," Doll says.
"Based on patterns observed during past recessions, such processes typically last several months.
"We are now two months into this process, and believe we have between two and four months to go, meaning we should expect high levels of volatility to continue, but that the longer-term outlook is brighter."
Doll says while many other countries around the world will also plunge into recession, recent action taken by global governments and policymakers has produced some success.
"At some point, market participants will collectively decide to respond positively to all of the stimulus being enacted and will begin anticipating an economic recovery," he says.
"When that occurs, pessimism will recede, and this cycle will be broken."IFAonline
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