Negative sentiment looks likely to continue in 2003

Global stock market indices have only a 50% chance to regain their December 1999 highs by 2018, according to research from the London Business School on behalf of ABN Amro. In the short term, report authors Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton believe the probability of another poor year in 2003 is essentially unaffected by the fact markets have already experienced three bad years in a row. According to their analysis, there is a 38% probability there will be a negative real return on the UK market over the coming year. Equity falls of 50% since December 1999 have created the t...