Wealth manager Brexit reaction: Long-term value will emerge from 'collateral damage'

Britain votes to leave the European Union

Daniel Flynn
clock • 10 min read

Fund pickers have reacted to "a point of crisis" as the UK votes to leave the European Union, but many believe the global macroeconomic landscape will emerge relatively unscathed after an initial phase of "collateral damage" passes.

In yesterday's referendum, the 'leave' campaign won by 52% of the votes against 48% voting to remain in the EU.

The decision wrong-footed stockmarkets around the world, with the FTSE 100 slumping by up to 8.3%, while Prime Minister David Cameron (pictured) handed in his resignation.

Despite a great deal of market movement on the day of the result, fund pickers believe Brexit is unlikely to affect global economic issues over the long term and could potentially throw up attractive investment opportunities.

Gavin Haynes, managing director at Whitechurch Securities, said: "We did not make big tactical calls based on trying to guess whether or not there would be a Brexit and we cannot second guess how the short-term fallout is going to pan out as a result.

"On the whole, our investment positioning is no different to before the result was known. We will maintain a core exposure to UK equities with a focus on dividend producing stocks and funds. We are likely to add some UK equities where we see valuations becoming particularly cheap in the sell-off.

"However, for most investors these should just be a component of well-diversified portfolios, both internationally and by asset class, which will help mitigate the Brexit effect.

"Whilst we understand this is a concerning time for investors, the focus should remain on a long term investment horizon and not let fear in the short term dictate strategy. We believe that investors are often too fixated on the short term and when short-term sentiment is driving markets this can lead to depressed valuations that provide good potential for recovery.

"Our focus will remain on providing well diversified portfolios that are focused towards providing attractive risk adjusted returns on a long-term view."

John Moore, director at Brewin Dolphin, said: "At points of crisis there can be opportunities but a clear focus on what you want to own long term is absolutely key.

"We resist second guessing binary outcomes but look for opportunities that will be left by those that can't resist such scenarios; Ask yourself before committing capital - Risk is the unknown, am I prepared to invest over a time period that will slowly reduce today's unknowns? If so, what is my immediate return for adopting such a stance? What might reasonably be expected over the next 5-10 years? How would this compare to alternative investment options open to me?

"We can see the number of opportunities building which gives us confidence in future returns for the patient investor."

Dan Kemp, chief investment officer at Morningstar, said: "The first thing to say is we are very cognisant that when you have an event like this there is a natural desire to do something, it is part of the fight or flight mechanism. The problem is people make a few mistakes.

"Investors underestimate the range of potential outcomes and they make predictions with too much confidence. We are deliberately avoiding doing this, and are prioritising research over reaction.

"We have slowed down investment process this year, and are looking at the fundamental valuation opportunities that are emerging and will continue to emerge over the next weeks and months. The message is to think on a long term.

"It is about finding areas which are being unfairly penalised and have become cheap relative to peers. The immediate temptation is to focus on the eye on the storm, i.e. European and UK assets, and try to come to a conclusion.

"We think it will take a while before we get clarity, and over the next days and weeks we will look at which assets have suffered collateral damage, with a mismatch between their price and fundamentals.

"Japanese equities is something we have been looking at and will continue to asses. We think stockmarket volatility seen there this morning is necessarily justified, and we will look to identify opportunities.

"Emerging market currencies and bonds may look attractive as well. Government bonds have gone from being very expensive to extremely expense, so here is a potential opportunity to reduce exposure.

"As we get clarity it may be that we find some very good value European assets, but we are not changing portfolios today."

John Redwood, chairman of the investment committee at Charles Stanley, said: "Overall, we accept the collective will of the markets is likely to be negative for a few days. With a lower pound the large exporting companies could then look attractive.

"We do not expect a Brexit recession, nor a punitive post-Brexit budget. Once UK asset values have stabilised after the sell-off they are more likely to be influenced by the fortunes of the dollar, the state of the US and Chinese economies, and by world growth, as they were before the referendum triumphed in the financial press. We will offer further advice when markets have got over their initial reactions."

Gary Reynolds, chief investment officer at Courtiers, said: "We have been long the US dollar versus the pound as a hedge against a Brexit.

"Our long US dollar positions will greatly reduce the effects of a leave vote on assets. We are now looking at what we should do in the short term.

"We have been selling dollars all morning. It's difficult because the price is so volatile and liquidity in options markets is challenging. Implied volaltility on calls and puts is still hugely elevated,

"The political situation is going to get very interesting in UK, EU and the US. Businesses will be reluctant to make capital investments in this environment, so GDP growth will drop and we may have another global recession, although it will be shallow compared to 2009.

"Equities may be at around fair value now, but it's difficult to see any asset class as a bargain."

Adrian Lowcock, head of investing at AXA Wealth, said: "Times of uncertainty will knock investor confidence as they see falling share prices and panicked experts predict doom and gloom. This leads to making quick and often irrational decisions, such as selling after the market has fallen.

"Investors need to look through all the noise and remain focused on their personal goals. Any sell-off will produce opportunities for prudent investors looking at the big picture and focused on the longer term. A weaker sterling will help the UK become more competitive and could boost the earnings of many of UK's large companies where the bulk of profits are made overseas."

Darius McDermott, managing director of Chelsea Financial Services, said: "Markets will now look to our politicians to see how they will deal with the situation. Also crucial will be the Bank of England's response to huge moves in the pound. We do not want knee-jerk reactions from parliament.

"So markets are likely to be volatile in a general downward direction for a while, not helped by the fact there are other big issues in the world that could also have an impact: China slowing, the US election and now possible contagion of Brexit to other European countries.

"But the world will not end. And as we know from quite recent experience, markets bounce back and good companies continue to thrive in the longer term. I would actually even be tempted to buy into the market dips - not huge amounts, but small lump sums.

"Three funds that could see you through the volatility are the BlackRock Gold & General fund, the Premier Defensive Growth fund, and the Evenlode Income fund."

Peter Elston, chief investment officer at Seneca Investment Managers, said: "It is unclear how far and for how long markets will fall though it is quite possible that markets will end the day well off their lows. Markets have a tendency to overreact.

"Further out, it will be the implications of voting to leave the EU for the UK economy that will be occupying our thoughts. It was patently clear from the debate that even those campaigning to leave the EU did not know precisely what a post-Brexit world would look like.

"The financial markets are sending a clear message today that it could well be bleak, though that is by no means a certainty. Indeed 52% of the electorate believe the UK's prospects are now brighter. They and their flag bearers should now be listened to."

Marie-Owens Thomsen, chief economist at Indosuez Wealth Management, said: "We now change our call on the Fed and no longer expect a rate hike in July and possibly not before the end of the year. However, we do not expect a rate cut in the US.

"It is possible that other central banks will cut rates, and that those with negative policy rates will move deeper into negative terrain. Negative rates are also likely to be extended to affect more of banks' reserves.

"Given the global business cycle is now positive, with some 3% global GDP growth year on year, these exceptionally accommodative monetary policies are more inflationary today than in 2008. This makes gold particularly attractive as a safe haven."

Jonathan Bell, chief investment officer at Stanhope Capital, said: "Looking at portfolio performances today, diversification across asset classes, with high cash balances and exposure to bonds and gold has helped reduce the impact of the market falls.

"Our decision to maintain high exposure to non-base currencies for sterling and euro clients has enabled currency diversification to protect portfolios from part of the market fall, whilst for US dollar clients where we have a higher base currency exposure (typically of 70%-80%) the impact of the stronger dollar has been detrimental in nominal terms, but contained.

"Our slight underweight in equities has helped performance on a relative basis and may eventually help in absolute terms if markets weaken further and provide us with an opportunity to add to equities ahead of a recovery."

Tom Becket, chief investment officer at Psigma Investment Management, said: "We have also reduced risk progressively through 2016. Particular noteworthy features are a move to being underweight in UK equities, in part because of the concern over Brexit, but also because we felt they had become unattractive.

"We also reduced our exposure to European equities and European financial institutions, as we could not be sure about the ongoing future of Europe's political system and the ability of regional companies to make profits. Finally, we have also recently lowered risk through reductions of higher risk corporate bonds, property shares, resources stocks and emerging market equities.

"We will comment further after the weekend and after markets have had time to digest this unexpected result, and the news that David Cameron has tendered his resignation."

Lee Robertson, chief executive at Investment Quorum, said: "We have been positioned at the lower end of our equity ranges and only around 30% in UK equities. Going forward as strategic investors we will, in the shorter term at least, favour funds with overseas holdings and earnings to take advantage of a weaker pound."

Sheldon MacDonald, senior investment manager at Architas, said: "We have reduced exposure to the pound prior to the vote but there may be an opportunity to increase exposure after the initial sell-off.

"We will continue to reduce high-risk bonds in favour of low-risk government bonds. The vote to leave may have a negative effect on equities but it is important to highlight that many UK companies are global in nature, which may soften potential impacts.

"If the market sells off aggressively we will use it as an opportunity to selectively add to our equity positions. We will also be rotating from European to US equities.

"We will continue positioning our portfolios towards specialist property, such as retirement homes. London office space has performed well and could suffer a setback."

Etienne de Merlis, chief investment officer at Signia Wealth, said: "With all uncertainties remaining for the near future, it is likely risk assets will remain under pressure, and safe-heaven assets remain an asset to be owned.

"Our current positioning with high levels of cash gives us the flexibility to start buying again at lower prices, but in our opinion, it is too soon to tell."

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