Year marked by progress and surprise

Last year turned out to be one of pleasing progress. Generally favourable economic conditions, mirrored by the mid-cycle corporate recovery, were more than enough to offset the challenges of a sharp decline in the dollar and a sustained rise in energy prices. It was also a year of some real surprises - very rarely do short rates advance with a consequent fall at the long end. That is what occurred in the US and was one of the reasons that the 'alternatives' endured such a torrid time midway through the year. Fortunately, the fourth quarter provided a strong recovery, as significantly more...