US - Lack of excess makes US recession unlikely,

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Stocks managed to rally again in mid-May, withstanding a continued rise in energy prices, ongoing wo...

Stocks managed to rally again in mid-May, withstanding a continued rise in energy prices, ongoing worries about credit problems and concerns over the weak economy. Factoring in these gains, stocks are now more than 10% above their lows from two months ago, within a few percentage points of where they started the year and less than 10% below their all-time highs. Our optimism regarding the economy and the markets this year has centred around our belief that the makings of a traditional recession have not been present. Recessions typically occur when the excesses of an economic expansion ...

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