strong outlook for jersey economy reflecting global economy
The public and private sectors will have to work together to ensure Jersey's continued economic expansion, says Andrew McLauglin, chief economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.
Speaking at last month's Chamber of Commerce Meeting in Jersey, McLauglin said the current debt fuelled expansion of Jersey's high-cost economy could only be sustained for another two years, before it would have to increase its output through greater investment in infrastructure and IT platforms.
He said: "Globalisation has intensified competition in the offshore market and a focus on output for an economy with high costs is the only way forward.
"To increase output there needs to be a collaborative effort between both the private and public sectors. To achieve this, either labour forces need expanding, working hours increased or people made more productive.
"The global production and labour arbitrage means that wealthy provinces increasingly become conceptual economies. It is all about the ability to monetise ideas."
However, McLaughlin said the outlook for the Jersey economy was strong, following several years of negative growth.
He added: "The local economy has struggled to keep pace as globalisation continued to change the rules of the game, but conditions are favourable going forward.
"Growth in the global economy has been driven by the US and Asia. Jersey has not really seen this growth as it is more geared to Europe, which has been growing at a much slower rate, but as US consumers ease back, eurozone and Asian consumers will step up.
"In 2004, Jersey saw the strongest growth in the last three years and the strongest growth since the 1970s. Gross Domestic Product was 6.4% in the 1980s, 1.5% in the 1990s and 0.75% in 2000. The outlook is better for the global economy and as a result, the Jersey economy will at least turn around its downward growth trend."
Growth in the global economy has been driven by US and Asia
Jersey experiencing strong growth in the last three years
DB and a lack of alignment
Encouraging better use of tech
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