Wrap platforms could see their business models "severely challenged" in 2012 as the proposed ban on platform rebates takes centre stage, said Skandia.
According to the company, the most significant driver of change will be the FSA's final decision on platform rebates.
It said if the watchdog bans cash rebates, wrap propositions will be in for a testing time.
"Most wrap business models rely on cash rebates and if these are banned their model has to change,"said Skandia marketing director Nick Dixon. "Many wraps seem to be focusing on getting the FSA to change its mind rather than on building a solution."
He added it was "odd" some wraps assume it will be business as usual for them post RDR.
"The RDR is important but it is the FSA's decision on rebates and evolving customer needs that will define the platform market of the future," he said. "Any platform resting on its laurels and assuming the RDR alone will make them a success is likely to be sorely disappointed come 2013."
Elsewhere, Dixon said the pensions market will power the growth of the market this year as pensions available on platforms increasingly replace SIPPs.
"Platforms will account for more than 50% of all new private pensions by 2015," he predicted.
Dixon also said only a handful of platforms will still be around in three years' time as margins come under ever-greater pressure.
"Platforms will see their margins squeezed down from 30-50 basis points today to 20-25 basis points in 2015," he said. "This will result is around ten major platforms surviving in the market by 2015."
Consistency and compliance vs. slower reaction time
Search for replacement to begin imminently
60+ £300bn ISA savings
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Total funds on list rise from 26 to 58