The UK's economic slowdown took a severe turn for the worse as figures revealed industrial output fell 1.4% between September and October, more than three times as much as many economists had expected.
The Office for National Statistics figures revealed publishing and metal products were the worst hit in a month when the financial world rapidly deteriorated.
Output by production industries the three months to October fell 1.8% compared with the previous three months.
Companies involved in metals and metal products saw output fall 4.2%, followed by paper and publishing, which fell 3.6% and transport equipment output dropped 2.8%.
Hetal Mehta, economic adviser at Ernst & Young's ITEM Club, says the bleak figures mean a 1% fall in GDP would not be out of the question in the final quarter of 2008.
"The output figures were much weaker than expected, largely driven by a dramatic slowdown in the transport sector," she says.
"Based on today's data release and available survey data for October and November, our short-run model suggests that manufacturing output will fall 2.9% in Q4 and that GDP would contract by 1%."
The UK is expected to be officially in recession by the end of the year, after GPD shrank 0.5% in the third quarter of 2008. Official figures confirming the state of the economy will not be available until late-January at the earliest.
Contact: John Bakie, Tel: 020 7484 9805, e-mail: [email protected]IFAonline
Regular reminders and updates
9 December 2019 deadline
Joe McDonnell joins as head of portfolio solutions (EMEA)
Adviser of the Year - South East
Fidelity Multi Asset CIO's outlook