Despite suggestions of the return to the bull market, the FTSE 100 actually fell 1% in the first month of 2004, points out BestInvest.
Analysis by BestInvest reveals, based on past performance, there is a 50/50 chance of the FTSE closing up or down for the remainder of 2004, as the FTSE 100 fell in January and for the rest of the year in just three of the 20 years, while another three years saw a bull even though the FTSE 100 had fallen in January.
The FTSE 100 opened the month on 4477 and was 4433 by open of business on Friday 30th January.
BestInvest's data indicates for 70% of the years -11 of the 20 years - the stock market started up in January and continued in that direction for the rest of the year, says John Spiers, managing director at BestInvest, while another three years showed the market rose in January and subsequently fell for the rest of the year.
"You need to take such figures with a large pinch of salt as stock markets have a natural tendency to rise . The fact a rise in January has been followed by a rise over the rest of the year - in 11 of the last years - is not surprising. Investors should also remember that stock market movements are generally subject to randomness, so predictions often hold as much credence as a toss of a coin."IFAonline
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