The UK economy is in worse shape than its US and European counterparts, Neptune chief Robin Geffen warns.
Aside from Japan, Geffen feels the UK economy is more fragile than other developed nations and is not optimistic on 2008 growth prospects.
He believes the 2008 US growth forecast will be revised down to 1.2% “fairly shortly”, with the UK somewhere in between an optimistic 2% for Europe and 1% in Japan.
Geffen says a “regulation stalemate” and a destructive private equity sector are the main contributing factors to the British decline.
Not surprisingly Geffen is therefore bullish on the emerging markets, expecting 2008 real growth rates of 7.5% in Russia, 8.4% in India and 9.8% in China.
“The world is moving east,” Geffen says. “In five to 10 years the largest markets will be China, India, Russia, the US and Japan a long way back.”
Geffen is “incredibly positive” on Russia, predicting the RTS index – currently at 1887 – to push through the 3000 barrier by the end of the year.
“There is a really really good chance of a 50% return out of that market this year,” Geffen explained. “I have a large part of my monthly pension in Russia.”
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