After more than a decade of false starts the Japanese economy may be entering a period of sustained consumer spending sparked by rising land prices, according to comments from JPMorgan Asset Management.
Stephen Mitchell, manager of the JPMorgan Fleming Japanese Investment Trust, says latest indicators of rising land prices in Tokyo are more than a blip.
Land price gains are not being experienced fully nationwide, but with some 30 million people in the Tokyo area alone, gains experienced there are starting to ripple outwards. Tokyo’s population is growing at 2.5% annually.
According to JPMorgan figures, yields from property projects are around 5% in many cases, while Japanese real estate investment trusts(Reit), currently still offer 4% yields.
This compares favourably with 10-year government bonds paying 1.3%, while cash contines to perform poorly.
Rising land prices are crucial to sustainable recovery in the Japanese market because consumption is directly linked to consumer confidence on the back of land prices rather than property prices.
Most household wealth is in cash and land, so an increase in the value of the latter leads to more consumer confidence, JPMorgan states.
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