US recession could hit bonds if it is prolonged

The US economy is likely to go down further than the market estimates, according to Michel Gonnard, head of fixed income at Cazenove. He says: "Recent interest rate cuts are not enough to rescue the economy and so good value in bonds is expected over the next quarter." Paul Thursby, who runs Baring Asset Management's Global Bond trust, is particularly keen on US Treasury inflation-protection securities (Tips), which provide inflation-linked returns. Real returns are continually monitored and changed according to headline inflation. Gonnard agrees, pointing out that conventional medium-...