What if there was no Gulf War?

With my background in corporate finance and analysis, I try to find historical parallels to current economic events in an effort to find roadmaps for the future. Seeing great opportunities last year at this time, I structured portfolios for a possible resurgence of consistent growth stocks (very much value stocks at the time) in beverages and food, defence and healthcare as the Federal Reserve tightened credit. Uncharacteristically, I even thought investors should buy bonds. As many recall, this was a major shift from the view I first adopted in the fall of 1998 when portfolios were positio...