Interest rate cycle coming to an end

The economic figures that have emerged over the past couple of months seem to have coaxed the market into adopting the view that the next Fed move on interest rates, be it in July or in August, will be the last one in the current cycle. Certainly recent data releases show labour market pressures stabilising, if not easing. Retail sales growth is slowing, and the housing market is cooling off, in terms of transactions and construction. Consumer confidence has fallen from its highs, and there is also evidence of a degree of inventory build-up. This has occurred without a worrying pickup i...