Further negativity likely

The UK stock market has nearly a four in 10 chance of having a third negative year in a row, according to the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2002 from ABN Amro and the London Business School. Based on analysis of past market performance, the report said the probability of the UK market falling for a third year in succession is 38%, and 31% for the world stock market index. The two organisations also found that, for world markets, three-year runs of negative returns have occurred 6% of the time over the past 102 years, while two-year periods of negative returns are more frequent, oc...