Tech shows signs of visible growth

At the beginning of 2000 we expected GDP growth to continue to strengthen in the first half of the year, prompting further tightening of monetary policy in the US and Europe, which would eventually dampen the speed of the global recovery. This continues to be our view, particularly in the US. In this context, US GDP consensus forecasts, which have moved from 2.6% at the beginning of this year to 4.8% more recently, now appear over-optimistic. Monetary policy obviously operates with a lag and we believe conditions have been put in place which will result in a sustained economic slowdown....