JPMorgan Fleming Asset Management: US update, Nov 2001

Earnings assumptions look over optimistic By Chris Tracey, investment director US investors are clearly of the view that, the worse the economic evidence, the more reflationary the monetary and fiscal response will be, thereby ensuring that the recession will not be long and the recovery sharp. Third quarter GDP, at -0.4% annualised, was actually rather better than the consensus estimate of -1.0%, but these are very preliminary numbers and may get revised down. The economic statistics for September alone were dire, but given the disruption caused by September's terrorist attacks, such...