• Home
  • Investment
  •  
    Retirement
    • Pensions
    • Income
    • Investment
    • Regulation
    • Estate planning
    • Equity release
  •  
    Your profession
    • Adviser tips
    • Business models
    • Companies
    • People
  • Regulation
  • Tax planning
  • Protection
  • Diversity
  • Events
  • Whitepapers
  • Industry blogs
  • Multi asset
  • Newsletters
  • Sign in
  • Events
    • Upcoming events
      event logo
      Retirement Planner Forum 2018

      Retirement Planner is committed to delivering best practice advise and discussion to our audience of professional retirement advisers and planners. This half day conference includes the opportunity for interaction and debate between delegates and speakers as they share unique insights.

      • Date: 15 Jun 2018
      • The Waldorf Hilton Hotel Aldwych London WC2B 4DD, London
      event logo
      Retirement Planner Awards 2018

      The annual Retirement Planner Awards is taking place on Friday 15th June 2018. Submit your entries by 6th April.

      • Date: 15 Jun 2018
      • The Waldorf Hilton Hotel Aldwych London WC2B 4DD T, London
      event logo
      Investment Marketing and Innovation Conference 2018

      The Investment Marketing and Innovation Conference returns on the 29th June 2018 at The Brewery. Join us to hear about all the marketing trends.

      • Date: 29 Jun 2018
      • The Brewery 52 Chiswell St London EC1Y 4SD, London
      event logo
      Investment Marketing and Innovation Awards 2018

      The Investment Marketing and Innovation Awards are back and are bigger and better than ever! With further categories to keep your creative juices flowing we are pleased to be back rewarding the hard working innovative people and companies in the investment world. Deadline to enter Friday 20th April.

      • Date: 29 Jun 2018
      • The Brewery 52 Chiswell St London EC1Y 4SD, London
      View all events
      Follow our events

      Sign up to receive email alerts about our events

      Sign up
  • Whitepapers
    • Latest Whitepapers and Reports
      When only the best will do in multi-asset funds

      Active managers who follow a rigorous, long-term investment approach, can boost the performance of multi-asset funds.  Read more about the case for including actively-managed funds in multi-asset portfolios. 

      Capital at risk. 

      CI064244  02/2018
      Download
      Friend or Foe: Bond markets in 2018

      As central banks move away from ultra-loose monetary policy, and the global economic expansion matures, bond fund managers will need to ensure their portfolios draw on a truly diverse range of sources of return and carefully consider portfolio risk if they are to generate yield in the current market environment.

      Download
      Find whitepapers
      Search by title or subject area
      View all whitepapers
  • Sign in
  •  
    •  

      Personalise your on site experience

      Download and use the apps

      Access your subscription from outside of the office

      Get relevant news and insight straight to your inbox

      Sign in
     
     
      • Newsletters
      • Account details
      • Contact support
      • Sign out
     
  • Follow us
    • RSS
    • Twitter
    • LinkedIn
    • Newsletters
  • Register
  • Industry blogs
  •     Multi asset
Professional Adviser
Professional Adviser
  • Home
  • Investment
  • Retirement
  • Your profession
  • Regulation
  • Tax planning
  • Protection
  • Diversity
 
  •  

    Personalise your on site experience

    Download and use the apps

    Access your subscription from outside of the office

    Get relevant news and insight straight to your inbox

    Sign in
 
 
    • Newsletters
    • Account details
    • Contact support
    • Sign out
 
Professional Adviser

Lacklustre fourth quarter expected

  • /home/progs/thaira/archive/invweek/23.10.2000/iwpn40.02.xml.new.new
  • 11 July 2003
  • Tweet  
  • Facebook  
  • LinkedIn  
  • Google plus  
  • Send to  
0 Comments

The post Labor Day rally in US equities failed to materialise. Markets remained volatile and lacking...

The post Labor Day rally in US equities failed to materialise. Markets remained volatile and lacking direction with the Nasdaq Composite suffering heavier losses than any other established index.

Conditions remain reasonable for a fourth quarter rally but it is becoming a less exciting prospect as each day goes by and any gains are likely to be deferred until the last two months of the year.

The vague hope that the Fed might be ready to start easing back on interest rates was knocked sharply on the head earlier this month. Alan Greenspan seemed to imply the authorities were more than a little worried that high fuel prices might seep through into inflation.

It is possible to construe the Fed position as indicative of the belief that the current oil price is delaying a move to a neutral interest rate position rather than signaling a possible rise.

It is as well to bear in mind that October tends to be a poor month for corporate statements and markets.

Overall the soft landing is now more assured though still not guaranteed. Consumer demand overall is still holding up and the labour market and labour costs are not an impediment to continued growth. These should balance out the shrinking demand for PCs and components.

Years of steadily improving productivity continue to impact corporate earnings and there is a better than fair chance that year 2000 earnings will grow at above at around 15%. The outlook for next year's earnings is already dimmed by the reduction in economic growth and the possibility that productivity gains may begin to taper off.

As things stand earnings growth of 10% in 2001 would have to be seen as top of the range. Any earnings warnings will no longer be confined to the old economy sector but are likely to come from some of the new economy stocks as well.

The shakeout on Nasdaq since the middle of March is no longer looking a simple short-term correction. Its volatility in the 3,600 to 4,200 range looked to be providing good buying opportunities but since it has dipped below 3,500 it raises a few questions about investor comfort with tech stocks. Having adjusted to the idea of discriminating between tech stocks investors seem now to be discriminating against them. A psychological reaction to the concept of the techno-economy is, fortunately, a mere possibility at the moment.

Nasdaq could recover as quickly as it has dipped, and probably will once the current valuations on software stocks with strong market positions are appreciated.

The traditional indices are biased to the upside though still in need of a catalyst to spark a sustained upwards move. We would expect the S&P to be upwards of 6% higher by the year-end.

Jackie Bowie is a fund manager with Murray Americas Growth

Related articles

  • Newell Palmer acquires Coventry-based IFA adding £80m FUM
  • Mixed asset funds favoured as FundsNetwork investors remain risk-averse
  • Which investment firms featured in the UK's top 50 employers for women?
  • Govt 'should double' tax exemption on employer pension advice
  • PA360: Advisers must embrace outsourcing to ensure profitability
  • Tweet  
  • Facebook  
  • LinkedIn  
  • Google plus  
  • Send to  

More news

  • Companies
Newell Palmer acquires Coventry-based IFA adding £80m FUM

Third completed acquisition of 2018

  • 25 April 2018
City of London
  • Investment
Mixed asset funds favoured as FundsNetwork investors remain risk-averse

March sales figures revealed

  • 25 April 2018
  • Equity release
Alice Watson: Why advisers should take notice of equity release

Three big drivers

  • 25 April 2018
  • Adviser / Broking
Richard Kateley: How can advisers sell more protection?

No easy answers

  • 25 April 2018
justin-onuekwusi
  • Investment
PA360 speaker profile: LGIM's Justin Onuekwusi

Whatever the weather

  • 25 April 2018
Back to Top

Most read

PA360: Equity release on the cusp of 'revolution'
PA360: Advisers must embrace outsourcing to ensure profitability
our-children-ourselves
GDPR and financial advice: Processing data on children
The Times' list points out 50 firms making gender equality a priority
Which investment firms featured in the UK's top 50 employers for women?
Newell Palmer acquires Coventry-based IFA adding £80m FUM
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Marketing solutions
  • Terms and conditions
  • Privacy and Cookie policy
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
  • Newsletters

© Incisive Business Media (IP) Limited, Published by Incisive Business Media Limited, New London House, 172 Drury Lane, London WC2B 5QR, registered in England and Wales with company registration numbers 09177174 & 09178013

Digital publisher of the year
Digital publisher of the year 2010, 2013, 2016 & 2017