The trend is your friend

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It is tempting to see cause and effect in the European Central Bank's currency-market interventions ...

It is tempting to see cause and effect in the European Central Bank's currency-market interventions in September and November and the euro's climb to a six-month high against the dollar the first week of January. Resist that temptation. The introduction of the 'r' word into sentences describing the outlook for the US and Japanese economies furnishes a complete explanation for the euro's crawl from the October 26 low of 82.31 US cents to 5 January giddy height of 96 cents. No belief in the power of intervention is required. Central banks don't change investor attitudes towards a weak and ...

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