Firms gear up for an early recovery

The industrial economy appears to be showing signs of recovery, following 12 months of contraction. First quarter 2002 consumer data has exceeded its fourth-quarter average, industrial production and orders are improving and the Fed's Beige Book's round- up of regional activity is equally upbeat. Such reassuring data suggests the recession is bottoming out and that a return to economic growth could be realised sooner than expected. However, neither investors nor corporate leaders are yet espousing such sanguine views. On the contrary, analysts' near-term expectations generally point to a ...