Inflation remains negative for second month in October

CPI at -0.1% again

Anna Fedorova
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Inflation in the UK has remained negative for another month in October, in line with economists' expectations.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed inflation in the UK fell 0.1% in the year to the end of October, the same figure as in the 12 months to the end of September.

The figure matches the consensus forecast, with economists polled by Reuters expecting CPI to remain at -0.1%.

The ONS said upward price pressures for clothing and footwear, as well as a range of recreational goods, were offset by downward pressures for university tuition fees, food, alcohol and tobacco, resulting in no change to the overall rate of inflation month-on-month.

CPI has remained at or close to zero for most of this year, and dipped into negative territory for the first time on record in April, as the slump in the oil price filtered through to consumer prices.

The continued low inflation figures have pushed out rate rise expectations in the UK into next year.

Peter Cameron, associate fund manager at EdenTree Investment Management, said: "With inflation still in negative territory and the global outlook arguably deteriorating, there does not appear to be any immediate pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.

"But inflation could start to pick up fairly quickly next year as the impact of the falling oil price washes out of the numbers and if current levels of wage growth are sustained. Therefore rates lift-off is definitely on the horizon, but probably not until the second quarter of 2016." 

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep rates on hold once again in its November meeting, at the same time as it unveiled a dovish Inflation Report.

Super Thursday Reaction: 'Unbalanced' UK recovery remains a concern

The Bank said weaker global growth would keep price increases in the UK under control in the long term, suggesting rate increases may be pushed out.

It also cut its UK growth forecast for 2015 from 2.8% to 2.7%, as a result of the emerging market slowdown.

Today's inflation figures were widely expected by markets, with sterling remaining largely unaffected by the news. It was slightly down against the US dollar by 9.50am, trading at $1.5199.

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